By Rupak D Sharma in Bangkok
When do Nepalis sneak off to visit a fortuneteller?
Most probably when they want to know something about their future or when they are uncertain about moves they should make to ensure success and prosperity in the forthcoming days. There may be other reasons as well but most of them, most likely, will be associated with future, decision-making and wellbeing.
But almost 2,500 kilometers away from Nepal in what is known as the ‘Land of Smiles’, the reasons for visiting a soothsayer may be quite different and bizarre at times.
In addition to satiating curiosity about destiny, people here in Thailand sometimes visit fortunetellers to generate fear among citizens and tune political climate to suit their needs.
A couple of days ago, two renowned Thai fortunetellers came up with two predictions, creating ripples in the country where occult beliefs are common. Both of them said there will be chaos and even bloodbath in May. But they polarized on the why.
Varin Buaviratlert, a renowned Thai astrologer, who is said to have close relationship with the junta, claimed there would be chaos and even bloodbath if the constitution is amended. His comments came a few days after Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej expressed his intention to modify the constitution.
A day after Varin expressed his view, Luck Lekhanethet, another renowned astrologer who is said to be close to the ruling People’s Power Party (PPP), asserted that there would be chaos and even bloodbath if the constitution is NOT amended.
Whether their predictions will come true or not is another thing, but the two contrasting comments delivered in the span of two days has made it apparent that “both of them are being used as pawns in political information warfare of bigger forces”, said Professor Worapol Promigabutr, former dean of sociology and anthropology department of Thammasat University.
What is also apparent is that the 18th constitution, drafted by September 2006 coup makers, is at the heart of the current problem in Thai politics and it can be a root cause in erupting violence and turbulence in a country which is basking in the heat of awkward political stability.
Ever since the new government took office earlier this year, it has been at an uncomfortable peace with its opponents and critics.
The opponents still blame the government of being a proxy of former PM and business tycoon, Thaksin Shinawatra and claim it is working towards serving Thaksin’s interest rather than of the nation.
The latest proposal on constitution amendment floated by PM Samak is also being seen by them as an attempt to favor Thaksin. They say by making amendments the present government will pave way to extend pardon to Thaksin and 110 other leaders of his disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, who were prohibited by junta-led Constitutional Tribunal from participating in politics for five years last year.
These arguments may be valid to some extent but the question is can the veil of Thaksin cover all the flaws in the constitution which has been labeled ‘unpopular’ and ‘divisive’ by many.
One of the biggest defects in the present constitution is the enormous power it has relented on the senate (upper house), which is dominated by handpicked members.
The current senate, which consists of 150 members, only has 76 elected representatives. The others were appointed by a tribunal, which is full of people close to coup-makers.
But the irony is that this senate, with three-fifths majority, can remove elected high-profile figures like the prime minister and minister from their posts. This is what poses a serious threat—not only to the ruling party but the Thai democracy as well.
Currently, the nine-member tribunal, which selects almost half of the senators, is filled with junta’s aides. But tomorrow if PPP or any other political party is able to fill those positions with their confidants, they will also try to exploit the constitutional clause to best serve their needs. In other words, this will only give leeway to unelected members to wield power against elected members and promote nepotism and authoritarian rule. The best way to avoid this catastrophe is to select senators through polls.
Another flaw in the constitution is the power it has given to independent bodies to ban political parties for the mistakes committed by executive members of the party. Recently, the Election Commission (EC) of Thailand ordered dissolution of two smaller parties—Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya—that are part of the ruling coalition. The charge: electoral fraud committed by some of the executive members. The case has now been forwarded to the Constitution Court and if it upholds the EC’s decision then the two parties will be disbanded.
The EC has also accused the former general secretary of PPP and House Speaker, Yongyuth Tiyapairat, of electoral fraud. He is fighting his case in the Supreme Court. If he is found guilty, PPP may also be dissolved, eventually bringing down the current government. This raises a question of how logical is it to punish the entire party for the mistake of one person.
The problem with Thailand, like many other nations, is that whenever it tries to strengthen its democracy, subverters always barge in and destabilize the entire process. The case is not different this time either.
But what these people, who are playing the game of pride and prejudice, don’t see is the political tension it is brewing in the country, which in turn is creating instability and keeping foreign investors at bay.
Soon after the elections, Thailand was able to restore much of the confidence in foreign investors which was lost during the junta’s rule. The performance of stock market had also improved after the new government announced introduction of an economic stimulus package and removal of capital controls on foreign investment.
Announcements to simplify red tape for investors, set up a liaison officer at the Board of Investment, and shorten approval times for small and medium-sized investment projects from two months to 20 days had also improved investment environment in the country.
However, recent political maneuverings by people behind the scene and the EC’s decision to ban two political parties have put the gains of post-election period at stake.
If Thailand fails to find a proper solution to the problem, things may go worse and more foreign investors may start moving to other locations like Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
We don’t need a fortuneteller to predict this.Published in The Kathmandu Post
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